Sergey Alexeev
About
I am a Senior Research Associate at UNSW’s Nura Gili Centre for Indigenous Programs and an Adjunct Senior Lecturer at the University of Sydney’s NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre. I serve as an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Mental Health Systems and as a member of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Drug Policy, and contribute to the Institute for Replication (I4R). I’m of Ingrian-Finn heritage.ⓘ Ingrian Finns are a Finnish-speaking minority historically rooted in Ingria (around St Petersburg). Many families experienced displacement and assimilation pressures across the 20th century.
UNSW profile · Research / Teaching statements · Google Scholar · ORCID · ResearchGate · X · LinkedIn
Publications
Journal articles & related media coverage
- The association between job loss and alcohol and tobacco use Using 19 waves of Australian HILDA data, this study finds little evidence that being fired or made redundant increases alcohol use, but small increases in tobacco initiation and consumption.
- Cluster trials inference with CARE Using real-data treatment reassignments and synthetic simulations, this paper shows how uneven cluster sizes and structures can distort cluster-trial inference, and proposes CARE as a design-based protocol for clearer, more comparable analyses.
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Under–25s show the clearest post–2021 rebound in mental health: HILDA 2001–2024
Using 24 waves of nationally representative HILDA data, this paper documents a sharp youth mental-health decline to 2021 followed by a partial post-2021 rebound, strongest among under-25s but still below 2019 levels.
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry (2026) · Post-print · X thread · SMH · ABC Radio (8:10)ⓘOne of many interviews on this paper. · MJA InSight+ · Dimensions
- Are people who use methamphetamine at increased risk of physical violence? Results from a nationally representative sample Using a population-representative survey, this paper finds people who use methamphetamine face substantially higher risk of violent victimisation, highlighting the need to consider safety and social supports alongside clinical treatment.
- How Accurate Is Inpatient Blood Pressure Measurement? Routine inpatient blood-pressure checks often miss key accuracy steps, and none met all expert standards, suggesting ward readings may be systematically biased and should follow standardized protocols and better staff training.
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Further findings on the intergenerational transmission of alcohol consumption
Using 43,817 parent–child pairs from 23 HILDA waves, I find alcohol use is transmitted mainly along same-sex lines, with parental influence strongest at ages 15–17 and then re-emerging when offspring become parents; patterns in non-birth dyads point to norm-based rather than purely biological channels.
Health Economics (2026) · Post-print · The Conversation · ABC Radio (37:03)ⓘOne of a dozen or so radio interviews on this paper, and my wife’s favorite. · Dimensions
- Dual-edged benefits of drug policing: a quarter century’s lesson from a heroin drought Using 25 years of monthly Australian postcode crime data and a triple‑difference design, we estimate the 2001 heroin drought caused a short‑run spike but sizable long‑run crime reductions—about 22% cumulatively over 18 years (≈AUD 2.2b/year in averted crime).
- Risky alcohol use and violence against women: cause or consequence? Bigger drinking bouts raise women’s risk of physical violence, and being assaulted tends to increase how much they drink later—suggesting targeted prevention and post‑incident alcohol support could help.
- A closer look at Doleac and Mukherjee (2022) and the effects of naloxone access laws on opioid ER admissions Re‑analysing Doleac & Mukherjee (2022), I document data/timing and inference problems; corrected triple‑differences show naloxone access laws do not increase opioid ER admissions, undermining the “moral hazard” claim.
- Transforming nursing assessment in acute hospitals: A cluster randomised controlled trial of an evidence-based nursing core assessment (the ENCORE trial) In a cluster RCT across 29 general wards (5 Australian sites), ENCORE improved proactive nursing surveillance and shifted rescue responses—benefiting low‑complexity patients while increasing escalations for those with multimorbidity.
- Harm reduction or amplification? The adverse impact of a supervised injection room on housing prices Using spatial (triple) difference‑in‑differences around Melbourne’s supervised injecting room, we estimate nearby housing values fell about 5–7% after opening, consistent with localised amenity costs.
- Wage equation misrepresents gay wage discrimination: overlooked evidence from Russia Using Russian household survey waves and a diff‑in‑diff around the 2013 “gay‑propaganda” law, I show wage‑equation approaches can yield misleading “no discrimination” results—highlighting endogeneity and reporting issues in orientation wage gaps.
- Fines for illicit drug use do not prevent future crime: evidence from randomly assigned judges Leveraging quasi‑random assignment to judges in NSW, we find monetary fines for illicit drug use/possession do not reduce recidivism—contrary to naïve OLS estimates.
- Technical change and wage premiums amongst skilled labor: evidence from the economic transition I document a post‑transition demand shift that raised wage premiums for law and business graduates in Russia (1985–2015) and use a skill‑biased technical change model to explain changing wage structures and transition recessions.
- Changes in and correlates of Australian public attitudes toward illicit drug use Using the 2013, 2016 and 2019 National Drug Strategy Household Surveys, we show growing support for cannabis legalisation and less punitive responses for some drugs, while support for legalising heroin and methamphetamine remains low.
- The Australian ready-to-drink beverages tax missed its target age group Using HILDA with diff‑in‑diff and comparative interrupted time‑series, we find the 2008–09 “alcopops” tax did not reduce drinking among under‑25s but reduced consumption among adults—consistent with substitution among youth.
- The role of imputed rents in intergenerational income mobility in three countries Including imputed rent as non‑cash income makes Australia appear ~22% less intergenerationally mobile, with little change for the US or Germany—warning that mobility comparisons depend on income definitions.
Other Writing
Forthcoming & Under Review
Work in Progress
- Booze & Bruises: A Century-Old Natural Experiment on Causal Link Between Pubs and Crime
- Produced Scores and Sorting in Centralized Admission
- Unexpected Health Improvements Following Imprisonment: Evidence from an Australian National Survey
- Addiction and gender norms
- Opportunity as a replacement therapy
- The middle class is not disappearing—it is mismeasured
Selected impact
- Australian drug-diversion policy (2026) Using NSW administrative data and quasi-random judicial assignment, the study found no measurable deterrent effect of fines for illicit-drug use or possession. QNADA, QuIHN and QAIHC cited it in submissions to a Queensland parliamentary committee considering drug-diversion policy.
- Australian cannabis-law reform (2023–24) The National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre's submission drew on my research on Australian public attitudes toward illicit drugs and on fines for illicit-drug offences when discussing legalisation, decriminalisation, and the costs of criminal penalties.
- Supervised injecting policy, Ireland (2023–24) The Queen’s University Belfast-led rapid evidence review cites our Melbourne study on local housing-market effects. Ireland's Department of Health later identified the review as part of the rationale for the supervised injecting facility model when licensing the country's first pilot facility.
Research program & grants
- REVALUE-AU: Revaluing Work and Evaluating Labour-market Adjustment in Australia REVALUE-AU will study what happens after Australian tribunals decide that work done mainly by women, in aged care, disability and community services, childcare and dental assisting, has been undervalued, and order its legal pay rate to rise. Using worker-level data, we track what those decisions actually change: wages, hours, employment, retention, and how employers, funders and services respond. The aim is evidence on what wage correction does once it reaches the payroll.
- EVIDENCE: Evaluating Interventions for Drug Epidemics—Net Community Effectiveness This project will study how harm reduction programs—such as safe injection centres and needle exchanges—in Sydney and Melbourne affect health, safety, and wellbeing for everyone. We aim to find out what works best, for whom, and how to make drug policies fairer and more effective across Australia. All results will be openly shared to help communities, service providers, and policymakers make better decisions. Special focus will be given to young people and First Nations Australians.
- HOPE: Health Outcomes and Post-incarceration Evaluation The HOPE project will find out how going to prison affects people’s health in Australia. We compare people sent to prison with those given community orders, using a research method that shows the true impact of prison. By working with Aboriginal leaders and people with lived experience, we aim to give clear answers to help improve health and justice policies. This evidence is urgently needed to address health gaps and support better outcomes for individuals, families, communities and the nation.
- FAMILY: Safe family-aware early identification and service planning for youth depression FAMILY will find out which aspects of family life—like a parent's mental health or financial stress—can help identify young people at risk of depression, and how services can use that information safely, without stigma or blame. Using national survey and linked data, and working closely with young people, carers and clinicians, we aim to build a practical, ethical framework services can use for earlier, more effective support.
- Robust inference for stepped-wedge trials: addressing negative weights with CARE-SW This project will improve how stepped-wedge cluster trials are analysed when standard estimators can place misleading negative weights on treatment effects. We will develop robust inference tools that remain reliable under staggered rollout, treatment-effect heterogeneity, and practical departures from ideal design assumptions, so trialists and policymakers can make better decisions from complex real-world evidence.
Expert & consulting work
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Fair Work Commission
Instructed by Piper Alderman and Citation Legal.
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NSW Industrial Relations Commission
Instructed by HWLE Lawyers.
Teaching
- Intermediate Microeconomics
- Predictive Analytics
- Data Mining and Data Analysis
- Time Series Econometrics
- Macroeconomics / Global Governance / Macropolicies / Financial Intermediation
- Intro Micro / Intro Macro
Collaboration & contact
I’m actively looking for new collaborators: co-authors, HDR/PhD candidates, applied partners, and people with decision-facing questions that need careful empirical work. My work spans econometrics, biostatistics, epidemiology, and health economics.
For students, collaboration can include mentorship and supervision: concrete projects can often be shaped into publishable theses or papers. For other collaborators, I’m especially interested in projects where strong design, linked administrative or clinical data, and a clear decision point come together.
If you’re interested in collaborating, email me at sergei.v.alexeev@gmail.com with a short note about your background, interests, and the question you’d like to work on, or message me on WhatsApp at +61 457 871 540. If you’re not quite ready to reach out, you can start with my Sergey AI chat to get quick clarification on my background, interests, and collaboration/supervision approach before contacting me. You’re also welcome to reach out to my current and past students for candid feedback on my supervision style (e.g., Alexandra Gallagher, Jessica Cornish, and Oscar Ninou).
For prospective HDR/PhD students
- Scholarships: domestic candidates are typically much less competitive than international candidates (roughly ~70% vs ~10–15%, depending on round and university).
- Eligibility / competitiveness: Honours degree or ~1 year of research in a Master’s with strong grades (≈75%+); otherwise, first-author papers plus ~1 year FTE research experience.
- Clear evidence of strong English language capability.